home ECMWF bi-weekly (Mon, Thu) Extended-Range Ensemble Weather Regime Forcasts by Helmholtz YIG SPREADOUT @ Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) in cooperation with Dynamos@IAC ETHZ

Plot width: (min 500px) reset

Description of available plots:
all based on 500 hPa 10d low-pass filtered Z500 anomalies. Last 240h are cut for filtering. Prior to initialtime 20201102 5d low-pass data and only last 120h cut.

  • "Weather regimes": relative number of ensemble members (including CF) attributed to a regime at each forecast step using full WR life cycle definition (Grams et al. 2017), including 5-day persistence. Last 5 days are in pale colors, as persistence is more difficult to achieve by construction. At forecast start previous 120h low-pass filtered analysis are used to consider LC definition.
  • "WR Members": Matrix plot showing the temporal evolution of active WR life cycle in each member. Note that several WR life cycles might be active at the same time but only the WR for which IWR is maximum is shown.
  • "WR Index": distribution of IWR in the ensemble at each forecast step.
  • "WR Simple LC": instantaneous regime attribution. The regime has the maximum IWR at that time and IWR is above 1.0.
  • "WR maxIWR": instantaneous attribution to a regime as in "WR Simple LC" but IWR must only be the maximum, not necesessarily above 1.0.