home ECMWF Ensemble Weather Regime Forecasts by Helmholtz YIG SPREADOUT @ Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) in cooperation with Dynamos@IAC ETHZ

Plot width: (min 500px) reset

Description of available plots:

  • "Weather regimes": relative number of ensemble members (including CF) attributed to a regime at each forecast step. The regime has the maximum IWR at that time and the time is within a period of IWR above 1.0 for that regime (in forecast range (-pers)h to (360-pers)h). Currently this period is pers=96h and indicated in the plot. For time steps after (360-pers)h IWR must remain above 1.0 for the remaining forecast times until 360h (in pale colors). To the right the climatological (ERA-Interim 1979-2016) regime frequency for the calendar day at forecast hour +360h is shown.
  • "WR Members": Matrix plot showing the temporal evolution of active WR life cycle in each member. WR attribution requiring persistence and IWR above 1.0 (attribution as in "Weather regimes"). Note that several WR life cycles might be active at the same time but only the WR for which IWR is maximum is shown.
  • "WR Index": distribution of IWR in the ensemble at each forecast step.
  • "WR Index ana.": IWR for the unfiltered analysis during the last 365 days.
  • "WR Simple LC": instantaneous regime attribution. The regime has the maximum IWR at that time and IWR is above 1.0. No persistence.
  • "WR maxIWR": instantaneous attribution to a regime as in "WR Simple LC" but IWR must only be the maximum, not necesessarily above 1.0.
  • "Z500 clim" 90 day climatological running mean of Z500 centered at initial time.
  • "Z500 mean/std"mean and standard devition of Z500 for all members attributed to the respective regime. ("Weather regimes" attribution).
  • "T2M, T2M Ano, W100M, W100M Ano, TCC, PRECIP": mean of 2m temperature, 2m temperature anomaly, 100m wind, 100m wind anomaly, total cloud cover, 6h precipitation for all members attributed to the respective regime ("Weather regimes" attribution). 2m temperature available for a "North Atlantic" and "Europe" domain. At least 4 members belong to a WR. In addition PMSL with a 5 hPa contour interval is shown. Anomalies wrt. ERA-Interim.
  • "old: WR pers" As "Weather regimes", but for initial times prior to 20190126_00 and with a 120h persistence.
  • "old: Mem. pers.": As "WR Members", but for initial times prior to 20190126_00 and with a 120h persistence.